From Climate Central - Wildfires in Canada have forcing mass evacuations in Manitoba and prompted urgent calls for assistance from First Nations leaders in Saskatchewan.  Parts of Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia have seen unusually intense heat, drought, and atmospheric conditions which have all collided during the last week of May 2025.

Climate change is fueling this early-season heat, making high temperatures in parts of central Canada at least five times more likely than they would be in a world without climate change.

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How has climate change influenced the heat and wildfires?​

• Climate change is causing more frequent fire weather. Warming temperatures and increasingly dry air, vegetation, and soils make it easier for fires to spread, and harder to fight or prevent.

• Daily average temperatures reached Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels of 5 in central Canada from May 26 to May 29, 2025. 

  • A CSI level 5 indicates that human-caused climate change made this heat at least five times more likely, signifying an exceptional climate change event. 

• During this time, nearly 1.1 million square kilometers of land were impacted by CSI level 3, meaning average temperature conditions over that land were made three times more likely by climate change.

  • More than 320,000 square kilometers of land were impacted by CSI level 5 during this time.

• Over the entire period, just over 1 million people in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Alberta, and Ontario experienced at least one day with CSI level 3.